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Development

Oak Bay Fought Density for a Decade. Here's What Got Built Anyway.

Dustin Miller
Jun 12, 2026
HomeBlogDevelopmentOak Bay Fought Density for a Decade. Here's What Got Built Anyway.

The missing middle has arrived in Greater Victoria's most single-family corner — not because Oak Bay wanted it, but because the province removed its ability to say no. Here's what's going up, what it costs, and what it means if you're trying to buy in.

For a hundred years, Oak Bay ran on one rule that mattered more than the rest: nothing changes. The biggest lots, the oldest money, and the tightest grip on what gets built anywhere in the region.

That rule is gone. Drive through Estevan, Henderson or South Oak Bay today and you can count the brand-new fourplexes, triplexes and townhouses going up on lots that, three years ago, would have produced none of them. This is the story of how that happened — and why the result isn't what the policy promised.

For a hundred years, Oak Bay ran on one rule that mattered more than the rest: nothing changes. That rule is gone — and the brand-new fourplexes, triplexes and townhouses going up across Estevan, Henderson and South Oak Bay are the result.

What changed: Bill 44 took away the veto

In 2023, BC passed Bill 44. On almost any lot that previously allowed a single house or a duplex, local governments now have to permit three to four units — townhouses, triplexes, fourplexes — as of right. As of right means council doesn't get to vote.

The thing Oak Bay was best at in the entire province — the slow no, the design review, the quiet delay — was removed for this category of housing. Oak Bay wrote the strictest version it was allowed: tighter setbacks, lower heights, smaller lot coverage. It still wasn't enough. After the district missed its targets, the province ordered further changes. The veto was gone.

by the numbers

The figures Oak Bay would rather you skimmed

664 → 16Homes due by 2028 (56 in year one) vs. what got built in year one
~10 yrsTo approve a single four-storey condo, rejected as recently as 2022
27 / 84Missing-middle applications, and new homes, now in the pipeline
+$200/ft²What Oak Bay sells for over Esquimalt — why builders bring the density here

What's actually being built

Walk the projects and a pattern emerges fast. A four-home ICF development on Bowker. Henderson Heights and Henderson Park. 4Oaks on Allenby. A triplex on the Lansdowne slope, sitting directly against the Uplands estates. A triplex on Mountjoy with units near 2,450 square feet each.

Notice what's missing: anything small. These are executive townhomes with private elevators, Miele kitchens and completion incentives — listing between roughly $1.25 million and $2.0 million.

density, not affordability

Oak Bay got the density. It did not get affordable.

Bill 44 was sold as an affordability tool. But the land is so expensive that only premium product pencils — cheap homes don't math on million-dollar dirt. Anyone describing a two-million-dollar villa as workforce housing is selling you something.

if you're buying

The typical detached house in Oak Bay runs about $1.75 million, and a genuine teardown still costs a million-plus — you're buying the land. These new townhomes start near $1.25 million: brand new, warranty, nothing to fix. For the first time, the cheapest way into a new Oak Bay home isn't a teardown you pour another million into. If you want the address and the schools and don't need a big lot, this is the best-value entry into Oak Bay that currently exists. That wasn't true three years ago.

Good or bad for Oak Bay?

It depends entirely on who you ask, and both sides have a real point. If you've lived here forty years, a three-storey building beside a 1920s house feels like a rule got broken, and the scale concerns aren't imaginary. If you're a family that grew up here and got priced out a decade ago, this is the first daylight you've seen. We won't settle that for you — but pretending it's all upside, or all loss, is the one position the facts don't support.

The bottom line

Oak Bay spent a century perfecting the art of no. The thing that finally changed it wasn't a vote, a protest, or a change of heart. It was a law that took the vote away. The most exclusive corner of the Island is becoming, slowly, a slightly more ordinary kind of place — and for the right buyer, that's an opening worth understanding before the rest of the market catches up.

frequently asked

What is the "missing middle"?

Small-scale multi-unit housing — triplexes, fourplexes and townhouses — on lots once reserved for a single detached house. It sits "in the middle" between single-family homes and apartment towers.

Does Bill 44 apply to Oak Bay?

Yes. Every BC municipality had to allow three to four units as-of-right on former single-family and duplex lots. Oak Bay conformed with the strictest rules it was permitted, and the province ordered further changes after it missed its targets.

How much do the new Oak Bay townhomes cost?

Roughly $1.25 million to $2.0 million. Many new three-bedroom builds start near $1.25M, against a detached median around $1.75M.

Is the missing middle making Oak Bay affordable?

No. The new product is premium. It adds variety and brand-new supply below the detached median — but it isn't low-priced, and the policy's affordability promise hasn't materialized here.

See live Oak Bay market data →

8X Real Estate is a buyer-preferred, data-led brokerage in Victoria, BC. Solve for X.
Figures are directional benchmarks from Repliers MLS, BC Assessment and the Victoria Real Estate Board, not an appraisal. Policy details current as of publication.

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About Author
Dustin Miller

Dustin Miller is the managing broker of 8X Real Estate. When he's not on the road, he is on his computer looking at real estate. You can often find Dustin at his office enjoying a bowl of won-ton soup.

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