Victoria's politicians promised missing middle housing would solve the affordability crisis. The province passed legislation in 2023 allowing up to six units on single-family lots. The City of Victoria streamlined regulations to make it easier to build duplexes, triplexes, and townhouses. Headlines celebrated the solution to BC's housing shortage.
But here's what's actually happening on the ground: Victoria is building 899 apartments for every single townhouse approved.
If you're trying to buy, sell, or invest in Greater Victoria, this disconnect between policy promises and on-the-ground reality directly affects your wallet. Let me break down the real data and explain what it means for your situation.
Here's where the confusion begins. The Times Colonist recently reported that Victoria's home building sector is experiencing a massive slowdown. Veteran developers like Aman Gill from Patriot Homes say they're getting calls from trades looking for work every day—something that hasn't happened in five years. Mike Miller of Abstract Developments reports having more standing inventory than ever before in his entire career.
Yet CMHC housing starts data for Greater Victoria shows construction is actually up 31% year-over-year. In the first eight months of 2025, developers started 3,547 housing units compared to 2,706 in the same period last year.
How can both be true? Because developers are building the wrong type of housing.
Of the 3,547 housing units started year-to-date in Greater Victoria:
This is the fundamental disconnect. Developers are building rental apartments at record levels, but those apartments aren't absorbing like they used to. Rental vacancy rates have risen from 1% to 2.5%, creating standing inventory that's not moving.
Meanwhile, the townhouses and single-family homes that buyers actually want? Almost none are being built. Buyers can't find what they're looking for, so they're frustrated. Developers say the market is cooling. Politicians claim housing targets are being met. All three narratives can be true—but only if you understand what's really being constructed.
In 2023, BC passed legislation allowing up to six units on lots previously zoned for single-family use only. This was meant to be transformative—no more lengthy zoning processes just to build a duplex or triplex. The City of Victoria adopted the strategy and, after a six-month review, created streamlined regulations to make missing middle projects easier to approve.
Politicians celebrated. Housing crisis solved, or so the headlines suggested.
But how many missing middle homes has Victoria actually built? According to CMHC data for the City of Victoria in 2025:
That's 56 apartments for every single townhouse and zero duplexes built.
The answer lies in the economics of development in Victoria. Missing middle housing requires enormous upfront infrastructure costs before construction even begins.
Based on quotes from professionals familiar with missing middle projects in Victoria, here's what a typical six-unit project on a corner lot costs in civil works and offsite improvements:
Total offsite cost: approximately $708,500—or $118,000 per unit before construction even starts.
But it gets worse. In March 2024, the BC Building Code was updated to a higher standard:
When the original application was submitted in December 2020, the developer proposed converting a character 1912 heritage home into a four-unit conversion. After years of back-and-forth with the city, the application was withdrawn and resubmitted as a missing middle townhouse project.
The development permit was finally issued in 2025.
Five years. Multiple applications. Multiple redesigns. Final result: four units. Construction hasn't even started.
This project tells an even more revealing story:
This project wasn't just one single-family lot; it involved four lots combined. But the developer gave up on townhouses entirely. Why? The economics don't work.
The latest apartment proposal includes 85 rental units (not for ownership), 47 underground parking spaces (requiring blasting), mostly one-bedroom units, and only five three-bedroom family units—barely meeting the city's 5% requirement for family housing.
The estimated timeline: one year for rezoning and permits, then two years to build. That's 14 years from the first proposal to occupancy.
The pattern is clear. Developers are choosing apartments because:
When missing middle finally comes to market, here's what you're getting for $700,000 to $900,000 plus GST:
For the same price, you can purchase a concrete condo with parking, an elevator, and amenities in quality Victoria West buildings.
The missing middle isn't missing because the policy doesn't exist. It's missing because the cost, timelines, and economics are functionally impossible at scale.
If you're shopping for a single-family home or townhouse, understand this: you're not competing with new construction. You're competing with other buyers for existing inventory.
Here's what the data shows:
If you're planning to live in Greater Victoria for seven to 10 years or longer, here's my advice: stop trying to time the market for a perfect bottom.
Why? Because we're adding 1,500+ units per year, but almost none of it is single-family supply. BC's population has grown 40% since 2000, while single-family construction has fallen 55%. That's a structural supply constraint that doesn't resolve in two to three years.
The best time to buy is when you find the right home at the right price in a neighborhood you love. Trying to save $50,000 by timing the absolute bottom means you might miss a $100,000 price jump when interest rates drop and buyers flood back in.
The second-best time to buy is now. The worst time is waiting for perfect conditions that will never come.
The cooling you're hearing about? It's almost entirely in new rental apartment absorption and downtown condos. Your single-family home market is fundamentally different.
Sales of existing single-family homes were up 6.3% year-over-year. Median prices are stable near $1.2 million. The market isn't collapsing.
The market is currently balanced—not favoring buyers, not favoring sellers. This is actually a smart time to sell if you need to move.
If you're downsizing (empty nesters): Waiting doesn't benefit you. The longer you wait, the harder the move becomes. Selling now lets you downsize into something more manageable, improve your quality of life, and pocket the equity difference. Some new condo apartments might actually suit your lifestyle perfectly, and the condo market is strong right now.
If you're upgrading (growing family): The home you're buying is also in a balanced market—you're not overpaying. The supply constraint on family-sized homes means the property you're moving into will likely appreciate more than the starter home you're selling.
If you have an estate sale or life change: Timing the market perfectly isn't your priority—getting the transaction done smoothly is. In a balanced market, you can price fairly, present well, and sell in a reasonable timeframe without desperation.
Pricing strategy matters: Price it right from day one. Don't test the market with inflated pricing and drop $50,000 three months later. Buyers have options right now. Your home needs to be competitive, not just listed. Fresh paint, decluttered, professionally photographed, and staged with curb appeal may pay off exponentially.
The investor environment in Victoria is challenging. Short-term rental restrictions eliminated the Airbnb strategy. The speculation tax reduced presale activity. Financing is expensive, and cap rates on rental properties are compressed at 3–4%.
But there are two diverging markets:
Condos and apartments are softening. Vacancy rates are rising to 2.5%. Developers have standing inventory they can't move. If you're considering new apartment inventory as an investment, be cautious.
Single-family and townhouse supply remains severely constrained. Only 542 ground-oriented units have started this year versus 2,935 apartments. This structural imbalance creates long-term appreciation potential.
If you're a long-term investor with a 10–15 year horizon, the opportunity is in the scarce asset class (single-family and townhouses), not the abundant one (apartments).
But be honest about your strategy: If you're looking for cash flow income, Victoria is an expensive market with compressed cap rates. You're buying for appreciation, not cash flow. If that's not your strategy, there may be better markets for you.
If you're equity-focused and believe in Greater Victoria's fundamentals—limited land, a growing population, structural supply constraints, and strong demand for ground-oriented housing—then selective opportunities exist. They're not always obvious, and they're not always plentiful. This isn't a buy-anything-and-make-money environment. It's a buy-the-right-thing-in-the-right-location-and-hold-for-a-decade environment.
Politicians make promises. Developers build what's profitable. You're left trying to make sense of one of the biggest financial decisions of your life with incomplete information.
Missing middle housing was supposed to solve Victoria's housing crisis. The policy exists. The regulations are in place. But on the ground, the math doesn't work. Infrastructure costs exceed $700,000 before construction begins. Approval timelines stretch five to 14 years. Banks prefer 85-unit apartment buildings to four-unit townhomes. Developers are choosing apartments.
The result? Zero duplexes. Sixteen townhomes. 899 apartments.
Understanding this disconnect—between what politicians promise and what developers actually build—is essential for making smart decisions about buying, selling, or investing in Greater Victoria.
My job is to give you clarity, not to push you into a transaction, but to help you understand what's real, what's hype, and what's right for you.
If you're navigating the Victoria real estate market and want to discuss your specific situation, reach out. Data should drive your decisions, not emotion.
Dustin Miller is the managing broker of 8X Real Estate. When he's not on the road, he is on his computer looking at real estate. You can often find Dustin at his office enjoying a bowl of won-ton soup.
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