he Victoria real estate market closed November 2025 with clear signals about where we're headed in 2026. As a data-driven Victoria REALTOR®, I've analyzed the latest statistics from the Victoria Real Estate Board to give you the insights that matter—without the hype.
There were 451 properties sold in Greater Victoria this November, representing an 18.1% decrease from November 2024 and a 26.9% drop from October 2025.
Before you interpret this as market weakness, here's the critical context: 2025 saw stronger spring market activity, while 2024 had an unusual late-year rally. Year-to-date sales are tracking almost identically to the previous four years. In fact, November 2025 sales exceeded both November 2022 and November 2023 (which each saw fewer than 400 sales).
This isn't a declining market—it's a shifting sales distribution pattern that reflects typical seasonality returning after several unusual years.
The divergence between property types that I've been tracking throughout 2025 intensified in November:
Condominium Sales: Down 36% year-over-year (119 units sold)
Single-Family Home Sales: Down 8.4% year-over-year (241 sold)
Townhome Sales: Down 26.7% year-over-year (55 sold)
This data confirms what I've been documenting: Victoria's housing market isn't monolithic. Your experience as a buyer or seller depends entirely on which segment you're in.
There were 3,152 active listings at month-end, representing:
The Victoria Real Estate Board defines market balance using the sales-to-active-listings ratio:
November's ratio was approximately 13.3%, technically in buyer's market territory but close to balanced. However, this varies significantly by property type and location.
As VREB Chair Dirk VanderWal noted: "Different types of properties and different locations influence where each home is on that scale of balance."
This is why working with a data-informed REALTOR® matters—the "Victoria market" is actually dozens of micro-markets with different dynamics.
This continues the remarkable four-year stability in single-family home prices. Despite economic turbulence, interest rate volatility, and policy uncertainty, detached home values in Victoria have remained essentially flat since 2021.
Condo prices are showing modest appreciation after a period of adjustment. Combined with the -36% sales decline, this suggests a value proposition is emerging: buyers are getting better quality units for stable prices while facing less competition.
Looking at median sold prices across Greater Victoria:
These numbers reinforce the benchmark trends: single-family stability, condo stabilization, and townhomes caught between.
The Bank of Canada has cut rates significantly throughout 2025, but the psychological impact on buyers has been slower than expected. November's "tone of patience" (as Chair VanderWal described it) suggests:
This patience could break in either direction as we enter 2026.
My analysis throughout 2025 has highlighted a critical disconnect: 83% of new construction in BC is apartments, while only 5% is single-family homes—yet single-family homes represent the majority of sales activity.
This structural imbalance explains:
The so-called "Missing Middle" (townhomes, duplexes, triplexes) remains mostly missing due to off-site servicing costs reaching $118,000 per unit for small developments—making them economically unviable.
Unlike Vancouver (with 2,500+ unsold condos) or Toronto (seeing project cancellations), Victoria has maintained relative stability. Our market benefits from:
Based on November's data and historical patterns, I anticipate January through March 2026 will present strategic opportunities:
For Buyers:
For Sellers:
The key catalyst for 2026 will be when patience transforms into action. This depends on:
Given the -36% sales decline in November, condos are clearly the segment to watch:
Bearish scenario: Continued weakness if economic uncertainty persists, new supply increases, and first-time buyers stay sidelined. Prices could soften further.
Base case scenario: Gradual stabilization as lower rates and improved affordability slowly bring buyers back. Sales volumes increase modestly, prices remain relatively flat.
Bullish scenario: Meaningful recovery if rates drop faster than expected and employment stays strong. Pent-up demand from first-time buyers enters the market, reducing inventory and stabilizing prices.
My assessment: The base case is most likely, with the spring market providing the clearest signal about which direction we're actually heading.
With only -8.4% sales decline and four years of price stability, I expect single-family homes to remain the most competitive segment in 2026:
If you're considering selling a single-family home, proper pricing and presentation remain crucial even in a balanced market.
While market-wide statistics tell part of the story, Victoria's real estate operates as a collection of distinct micro-markets:
Oak Bay: Continued strength in single-family homes, stable pricing, low inventory James Bay/Downtown Victoria:Condo market with opportunities, especially for investors and downsizers Saanich East (Gordon Head, etc.): Family-focused areas maintaining value, school catchments matter Langford/Westshore: Higher inventory, more price sensitivity, new construction competition Esquimalt: Emerging value proposition, especially for first-time buyers
As I've documented throughout 2025, there's often a significant gap between political housing promises and market reality:
With a federal election likely in 2025, housing policy could shift significantly:
BC's housing policies will continue evolving:
Local governments (CRD municipalities) control many housing levers:
My take: Watch for policy announcements, but remember that implementation always lags rhetoric. The 83% apartment / 5% single-family construction split persists despite multiple government initiatives promising more "missing middle" housing.
Now through March 2026 presents strategic opportunities:
✓ Condo buyers have significant leverage with elevated inventory and reduced competition
✓ First-time buyers benefit from lower rates and stabilized prices
✓ Downsizers can find quality options without the spring market pressure
✓ Investors should focus on cash flow fundamentals, not appreciation speculation
Key considerations:
The balanced market requires realistic pricing and strong presentation:
✓ Single-family sellers will still see activity with proper positioning
✓ Condo sellers need competitive pricing given inventory levels
✓ Pre-listing preparation matters more in balanced markets than seller's markets
Key considerations:
The November data suggests patience is prevalent—but when should patience end?
Consider acting if:
Don't wait if:
Remember: Real estate is intensely personal. Market timing matters less than life timing.
After analyzing November's data and broader trends, here's what matters most:
The "Victoria real estate market" is actually dozens of micro-markets, each with different inventory levels, buyer demographics, and price dynamics. Generic market commentary won't help you make informed decisions about your specific situation.
My approach combines:
Whether you're buying your first condo in James Bay, selling a family home in Oak Bay, or investing in Langford, you deserve advice grounded in data, not emotion.
For Buyers:
For Sellers:
For Investors:
Have questions about the Victoria real estate market? Schedule a consultation to discuss your specific situation.
I'm a Victoria REALTOR® at 8X Real Estate who believes in data-driven decision-making over market hype. My approach combines comprehensive market analysis with transparent communication to help clients make informed real estate decisions.
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I work with buyers, sellers, and investors throughout Greater Victoria, from first-time condo purchasers in downtown Victoria to families selling homes in Oak Bay to investors building rental portfolios in the Westshore.
My commitment: You'll always get factual, data-supported advice—not sensational headlines designed to create urgency that doesn't exist.
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