In March 2025, the Victoria real estate market exhibited signs of softening amid ongoing economic uncertainties. Here's a detailed overview:
Victoria is proving its resilience and stability. In February, residential sales in Victoria were up 10% while overall sales in BC were down 10%. By category, all property types are similarily affected, though condo sales have improved in Victoria and shifted towards larger 2-bedroom units.
Greater Vancouver saw a -11.3% year over year change in sales volume in March. The Fraser Valley has come to a standstill with -27.2% y/y change in sales volume.
Greater Toronto Real Estate Board is reporting a -27.4% sales year over year in February, while inventory surged 50%.
The provincial numbers show a jump of 28% for BC as a whole. Vancouver saw a 37.9% increase in inventory, which is 44.9% oabove the 10-year seasonal average.
Another sign that Victoria has a lot of room for additional inventory, as Victoria market (currently 3,023) is still far below the 10 year average (4,333).
According to VREB Chair Dirk VanderWal, despite global economic uncertainties, the local market has remained stable and balanced. The increase in inventory has provided buyers with more options, while relatively flat pricing offers predictability for both buyers and sellers. Well-priced and well-presented properties continue to attract interest, with instances of multiple offers, a common hallmark feature of the spring market.
However, independent analyst Leo Spalteholz from House Hunt Victoria notes a gradual weakening in the market. Sales growth has slowed from a 60% year-over-year increase in October 2024 to just 4% in March 2025. While inventory is growing, it remains below the 10-year average by 21%, indicating that the market is slightly softer but not drastically so.
Additionally, the entry-level detached segment (homes under $1 million) experienced a 20% decline in sales compared to last year, with inventory in this category increasing (though not a material amount). This suggests a more cautious approach among buyers in this price range.
The Victoria real estate market in March 2025 reflects a balanced environment with nuanced trends across different segments. While overall sales and inventory have increased modestly, specific areas like entry-level detached homes are experiencing shifts that warrant attention.
Mortgage renewals are going to be making its way, with borrowers going from 2% or below to 4%. This will continue for the next 18 months. This should put some upward pressure on new listings and inventory as some homeowners experience rate stress.
Both buyers and sellers should stay informed and consider these dynamics when making decisions in the current market.
Dustin Miller is the managing broker of 8X Real Estate. When he's not on the road, he is on his computer looking at real estate. You can often find Dustin at his office enjoying a bowl of won-ton soup.
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