Single-family home construction in Greater Victoria isn't just slowing down—it's collapsing. The numbers are more extreme than most people realize, and if you're planning to buy, sell, or invest in Victoria, this directly affects your real estate wealth and long-term financial future.
I've pulled data from CMHC, BC Housing, and the Victoria Real Estate Board, and when you line them up, the picture is shocking. Let's break down what's really happening in the construction pipeline and what it means for you.
To understand the crisis, you need to see the full picture—from registration through completion. Here's what the data reveals at each stage:
Before a shovel hits the ground, new homes must be registered with BC Housing. This is your earliest indicator of future supply.
In August alone, only 21 single-family homes were registered in the entire capital region.
Let that number sink in. Twenty-one homes registered across all of Greater Victoria in a single month.
https://www.bchousing.org/research-centre/housing-data/new-homes-data
CMHC tracks when construction actually begins. The data shows:
That's approximately 15 apartment units for every single-family home starting construction.
https://www03.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/hmip-pimh/en#Profile/2440/3/Victoria%20CMA
Right now, approximately 333 single-family homes are actively under construction across Greater Victoria. Compare that to 8,329 apartment units currently being built.
The imbalance is enormous.
This is where reality really hits:
Here's the problem: almost all those sales were resales, not new construction. We're living off yesterday's inventory.
When politicians and builders tout headline construction numbers, they say everything looks fine. CMHC shows about 6,600 total units on a six-month average. Sounds robust, right?
But here's what they don't highlight:
Meanwhile, on the demand side, absorption rates are slowing dramatically. Just 11 single-family units were absorbed in August, down from 30–34 in previous months.
But here's the premium being paid for scarcity: the few brand-new single-family homes that did sell showed:
The market is pricing in scarcity. Developers are charging premium prices for delivering new single-family product because supply is so constrained.
https://www.vreb.org/current-statistics#gsc.tab=0
A single-family lot produces one home. Price it at $1.4 million for an entry-level home, maybe $2 million if you add premium finishes. That's the revenue ceiling.
But redevelop that same lot into four townhouses? Or on a larger lot, a multi-unit building? Suddenly the math improves dramatically.
Builders follow margins, and the margins are in density. As long as zoning allows and municipal policy favors it, developers will choose the more profitable option every time.
This isn't a market accident—it's by design. Both municipal and provincial government policy is specifically engineered to encourage rental and multi-unit housing over detached homes.
The evidence:
This is exactly what the province and municipalities want. Single-family zoning is being phased out. Policy is steering development toward density, and developers are responding rationally by building what regulations allow and what's profitable.
Even when single-family homes do start construction, they're taking longer to complete. Completions are down 34% year-over-year due to:
This compounds the supply shortage. You have fewer starts, and the starts that do happen are taking longer to finish.
You might think Victoria's booming population justifies building mostly apartments. But the data tells a different story.
BC population growth has been surprisingly slow:
The decline is driven by:
Even with slowing population growth, housing supply is falling faster than demand. That's the real crisis.
To understand how dramatic this shift is, you need historical context:
Here in Victoria, we're currently flat-lining with approximately 333 single-family homes actively under construction. We're not building more. We're barely holding steady, if not declining.
If you own a single-family home in Greater Victoria, you own something that's becoming increasingly rare.
The numbers tell the story:
Even though the current market is technically balanced—with sales-to-listing ratios hovering in the healthy 14–20% range—the long-term supply crunch clearly favors sellers.
As supply continues to tighten and demand remains steady, single-family homes will appreciate. This isn't speculation; it's supply and demand economics.
If you're a single-family homeowner, you're sitting on an increasingly valuable asset. The scarcity premium will only grow as fewer homes enter the market each year. While timing a market peak is impossible, the long-term fundamentals favor your position.
If you're considering selling, understand that your property is part of a shrinking inventory. Price it fairly and present it well—demand is there, and competing inventory is limited.
You're not really competing for new homes. You're competing for used inventory, and most of it's 30 years old or much older.
New construction simply isn't part of the single-family picture in Greater Victoria.
Current market data:
You're facing a choice between:
The uncomfortable truth: if you want to own a single-family home in Greater Victoria, waiting for a price crash may mean missing the window entirely. Buyers who purchase now will likely see significant appreciation as supply becomes even more constrained.
If you can acquire a single-family home in Greater Victoria, this is a textbook supply constraint play. Here's why:
The indicators all align:
This creates a unique opportunity window. Three to five years out, the supply simply isn't coming. The single-family home property type will become rarer and more expensive, accessible to fewer people.
If you're equity-focused with a 7–10+ year time horizon, single-family homes represent a strong long-term hold:
This isn't a quick flip opportunity. It's a patient capital play based on structural supply constraints.
If you're looking for quick cash flow, Victoria's cap rates are compressed and this strategy won't work. But if you're building wealth over a decade, this is a compelling fundamental story.
Here's the uncomfortable truth: at every stage of the construction pipeline, single-family supply is collapsing while demand remains steady.
Meanwhile:
The idea of owning and living in a single-family home in Greater Victoria isn't extinct—but it's quickly becoming an endangered species.
If current trends continue:
Year 1 (Now): Prices remain stable. Inventory is tight. Buyers still have reasonable options if they act decisively.
Years 2–3: Supply tightens further. Price appreciation accelerates. Buyer competition increases. Entry points become less favorable.
Years 4–5: Single-family homes become genuinely rare. Prices reflect scarcity premium. First-time homebuyers may be priced out entirely.
This isn't doom-saying. It's data-driven trend analysis based on CMHC registrations, completions, and housing policy that shows no signs of reversing.
In real estate, nothing matters more than supply and demand. Greater Victoria has:
These factors don't resolve in one or two years. They're structural. They compound over time. And they point clearly toward continued appreciation of single-family homes in Greater Victoria.
Whether you're buying, selling, or investing, understanding this supply collapse is essential to making smart decisions about your real estate portfolio.
The single-family home in Greater Victoria is becoming rare. The question isn't whether to act, but when—before supply tightens even further.
Dustin Miller is the managing broker of 8X Real Estate. When he's not on the road, he is on his computer looking at real estate. You can often find Dustin at his office enjoying a bowl of won-ton soup.
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