September brought us exactly what a healthy market should look like—steady, predictable, and refreshingly drama-free. We moved 554 properties across Greater Victoria, just slightly below last September's numbers but up from August. The story? We're settling into a balanced market that actually gives both buyers and sellers room to breathe.
Let's talk about condos, because when you dig into the numbers, you see something fascinating happening.
The headline: 154 condos sold in September at a median price of $539,450. Compare that to September 2024: 181 sales at $545,000. Prices? Virtually unchanged year-over-year. But volume dropped 15%.
What's really happening beneath the surface:
The entry-level market is feeling the pressure. One-bedroom condos dropped from a median of $485,000 last September to $468,250 this year—a $17K decline. Sales volume in the 1-bed space held relatively steady (53 sales vs 48), but buyers clearly have pricing power they didn't have before.
Two-bedroom condos? A different story. Sales dropped significantly from 123 units to 89 (down 28%), yet median prices held absolutely flat at $586,000. That's the tell. When volume drops but prices don't budge, you're watching a market where buyers are being ruthlessly selective—cherry-picking quality units and walking away from anything that's overpriced or underwhelming.
The overall condo median stayed stable not because everyone's trading up, but because motivated buyers are only pulling the trigger on properties that justify the price. Everything else sits.
For condo buyers: You have leverage, especially in the 1-bedroom segment where prices have actually softened. The 2-bedroom market is proving stubborn—quality units at fair prices are moving, but sellers testing the ceiling are learning expensive lessons about inventory carrying costs.
Take your time. Be selective. The market is rewarding discipline right now, not desperation. And with interest rates dropping, your carrying costs are improving while seller urgency is building.
For condo sellers: Market discipline works both ways. If you're selling a 2-bedroom, understand that buyers have walked away from 28% fewer deals than last year—not because they can't afford it, but because they're choosing not to settle. Your unit needs to be priced right and presented exceptionally. The days of "good enough" are over.
While condos saw softer demand, single-family homes held strong. We sold 289 homes at a median of $1,170,000—up 6.3% in volume from last September. These properties continue proving more resilient, likely because the demographic buying single-family homes is less interest-rate sensitive and has more staying power.
Townhomes also showed strength at 72 sales (up 9.1% year-over-year) with a median price of $800,000. They're becoming the sweet spot for buyers who want space but need to stay realistic about price.
Our sales-to-active-listings ratio sits comfortably in that 17-28% range—textbook balanced market territory. No panic buying. No fire sales. Just normal, seasonal real estate activity where quality wins and mediocrity sits.
For sellers: Your home needs to be sharp and priced right. You're competing against 3,694 active listings—nearly 10% more than last year. The market is proving it will reward excellent properties at fair prices and punish everything else. Presentation matters. Strategy matters. Your REALTOR® matters.
For buyers: You've got leverage you haven't had in years. Take your time. Do your homework. Make informed decisions. The condo market especially is showing that patient, selective buyers are dictating terms right now.
Let's acknowledge the elephant in the room: falling interest rates. The Bank of Canada has been cutting, and more cuts are likely coming. This traditionally brings buyers off the sidelines—especially first-timers targeting that 1-bedroom entry point where we're already seeing price softness.
The timing play: We're in a sweet spot. Rates are down, giving you better affordability. Competition is down, giving you negotiating room. But as rates continue falling, expect more buyers to return—which means the selectivity advantage you have today won't last forever.
For sellers, the math is simple: price it right now while you're competing against elevated inventory, or chase the market down as buyer leverage continues building into winter.
Victoria's real estate market isn't broken—it's maturing. We've moved from the overheated chaos of recent years into something far more rational. The market is rewarding quality and punishing complacency on both sides of every transaction.
The condo market particularly reveals this evolution: stable headline numbers hiding a story about buyer selectivity and market discipline. Entry-level pricing is softening while larger units prove stubborn—not because of supply constraints, but because buyers simply won't overpay anymore.
If you're in the market—whether buying or selling—this environment rewards preparation and penalizes assumptions. The fundamentals are solid. The drama is gone. The market is functioning exactly as it should.
Want to talk strategy? The market's balanced, but your approach shouldn't be generic. Let's break down what September's numbers mean for your specific situation—and what the granular data suggests about where opportunity actually exists.
Dustin Miller is the managing broker of 8X Real Estate. When he's not on the road, he is on his computer looking at real estate. You can often find Dustin at his office enjoying a bowl of won-ton soup.
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